In an age of endless headlines, market alerts, and social media chatter, investors are flooded with information. The challenge isn’t access to data —it’s knowing what actually matters. At Carlson Investments, we help clients focus on what matters most: the long-term fundamentals that drive real value.
What Really Moves the Needle?
The single most important variable in assessing the value of a company is its expected earnings and cash flow. At its core, modern financial theory holds that a company’s value is determined by discounting its future cash flows to the present. The direct implication of this is that “signal” must be information that materially affects those long-term cash flow expectations.
Not all information is created equal. “Signal” is the relevant, meaningful data that directly affects an asset’s long-term value. “Noise” is everything else: the hype, the drama, the fleeting headlines that trigger emotion but offer little substance.
Here’s how we define it:
Signal includes insights like:
- Structural revenue drivers—guided by innovation, new products/markets, or shifting consumer behavior.
- Competitive position—how a company stacks up in its industry and where it’s gaining or losing ground.
- Margin trajectory—particularly signs of incremental improvements.
- Capital allocation—how companies reinvest, return capital to shareholders, or shore up their balance sheets.
Noise includes distractions like:
- Quarterly earnings surprises driven by one-off events rather than core performance.
- Flashy headlines that misrepresent macro events or company performance.
- Viral social media sentiment that can whip up volatility without lasting impact.
A Long-Term Lens, Always
Benjamin Graham, considered the father of value investing and mentor to Warren Buffett, famously said, “In the short-term, the market is a voting machine, but in the long-term it is a weighing machine”. As such, stock prices tend to revert to their fundamentals over time and the noise impacts wash out.
At Carlson, this is something we are constantly mindful of. It’s easy to get caught up in noise—every investor encounters this—but experience and the refined temperament that comes along with it has allowed us to stay disciplined.
Why It Matters for You
If you’ve ever felt overwhelmed by market noise—or unsure whether to act on a headline—you’re not alone. But you don’t have to navigate it alone either.
At Carlson Investments, we provide clear, research-driven guidance that helps you stay focused on your goals, not the latest market buzz. Our role is to help you make calm, informed decisions—backed by decades of experience and a fiduciary duty to put your best interests first.
In a world of endless information, clarity is a competitive advantage. Let’s use it to your benefit.
Carlson Investments does not provide tax, legal, or accounting advice. This content has been written for informational purposes only. Always consult your individual tax, legal, or financial professionals for advice tailored to your situation.
Let's Talk
Finding a better way doesn’t start with you learning about investment strategy. It starts with us learning about you.
Let’s get started.
Contact Us